Abstract:
Purpose : This study examines the impact of climatic change on food-grain production and yield using statewise panel data during 1977-2014 in fifteen Indian states. Accordingly, it estimates the projected food-grain
production and yield by the years of 2040, 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100. Finally, it provides the effective practical
and effective policy suggestions to reduce the climate change impact on food-grain farming based on existing
studies.
Research Method : Regression coefficients of food-grain production and yield with climatic and non-climatic factors
are estimated using Cobb-Douglas production function model. Marginal impact analysis method is used to examine
the projected food-grain production and yield.
Findings : Empirical results infer that most climatic factors have a negative impact on food-grain production
and yield in different weather seasons. Projected results are suggested that food-grain production is expected
to be declined by 5.25%, 6.64%, 8.03% and 9.57% by 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100 respectively. Food-grain
yield is likely to be decreased by 1.05%, 1.96%, 2.87% and 5.07% by the aforesaid years.
Research Limitations : This study could not capture impact of inter-states disparities in socio-economic
condition of farmers, geographical conditions, agriculture policies and public spending on agriculture
and rural development on food-grain production and yield. It also could not include factors such as solar
radiation, sun intensity, wind speed and heat wave in empirical investigation.
Originality/ Value : It compiles state-wise panel of food-grain production and yield as dependent variables,
and climatic variables and non-climatic factors as explanatory variables during 1977-2014. It examines the
projected food-grain production and yield.
