INVESTIGATING THE DAIRY PRODUCTION OF SAARC COUNTRIES AND FORECASTING (1961-2016)

Abstract

South Asian countries have most diverse income generating activities, among them milk production is one of the significant livelihood activities in all most all countries. Dairy production is entirely contributed from cattle, buffaloes, goats, sheep and camel. Thus, the study focuses to compare the situation of dairy production of SAARC countries and predict the future through the variation and model fitting. Secondary data were collected through Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT) considering cow, goat, sheep, buffalo and camel for the selected country like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka from 1961 to 2016. Data was presented using Time Series plot, Histograms and Pie chart as graphical presentation. Descriptive statistics, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model were utilized as statistical techniques. Results revealed that among the dairy production, fresh cow was the main category in India, Afghanistan Sri Lanka and Bhutan respectively and it was common in all SAARC countries. VAR (1) model has satisfied all the assumptions and it could be utilized for the prediction of milk production of cow in all countries. In the year 2022, rapid growth of fresh milk of cow production could be seen in India, Nepal and Bhutan whereas slightly increment in Afganistan. However, milk production of cow will be decreased in Sri Lanka and Bhutan in the same year. Milk of fresh goat was the main category of Bangladesh and Nepal and fresh buffalo was Pakistan. Camel milk production was not in some countries but very few amount could be seen in India and Bangladesh. There is a need for preparation of strategic planning for the cooperative work within the region because in some countries with a lack of production while some countries have excessive supply.