ASSESSING THE RISKS OF LAND USE CHANGES DUE TO TOURISM GROWTH: A CASE STUDY IN ELLA, SRI LANKA

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the land use change from 2010 to 2024 and to identify destination risk due to tourism growth. Secondary data were used to create maps of Landsat 8 and data were analyzed using unsupervised classification in Arc GIS Pro software. In 2010, there has been 2083.59 hectares of dense vegetation and it accounts 5736.15 hectares of vegetation in the same year. From 2016 to 2024, it has shown a clear decrease of vegetation cover in losing nearly 700 hectares. The area covered by dense vegetation has drastically decreased by -34.62% and vegetation cover has decreased - 26.12% from 2016-2024. It accounts a 66.26% increase in built-up areas. This growth is likely driven by the demand for tourist accommodations and facilities. The study has revealed that, annually the dense vegetation is decreased by -1213.50 hectares and vegetation cover is decreased by -3282.08 hectares. The increasing of built-up areas annually by +3068.18 hectares reflects the growth and expansion of this area. The considerable increase in built-up and bare land, combined with the decline in dense and overall vegetation, highlights the deforestation, soil erosion, landslides and forest fires. For future sustainability, it is critical to implement strategies that balance development with environmental conservation including strict the policy implications and protecting the natural beauty.