QUARTERLY TRENDS IN SRI LANKAN UNEMPLOYMENT: A GENDER AND SECTORAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

The unemployment rate serves as a critical indicator of labour market conditions, reflecting the balance between job supply and demand. This study investigates the quarterly variations in Sri Lanka's unemployment rate from 1990 to 2004 and from 2006 to 2022, focussing on gender and sector-specific trends. Using time series analysis techniques, including the ARIMA (1,1,1) model, the research identifies significant declines in unemployment over both periods and forecasts future rates for 2023 and 2024. The model selection was guided by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) to ensure accuracy. The study finds that although the overall unemployment rate has stabilised, gender and sector disparities persist, with female and urban unemployment remaining higher. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers to devise targeted strategies aimed at reducing unemployment, particularly among vulnerable groups. The results emphasise the need for ongoing monitoring and tailored interventions to sustain economic growth and labour market stability.