Strategic Balancing or Dependency? An Analysis of Sri Lanka's Foreign Policy Dynamics with India and China

Abstract

This study investigates Sri Lanka's foreign policy dynamics in navigating the strategic influences of India and China. Situated at the geopolitical crossroads of the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka plays a pivotal role in the regional and global balance of power. This research examines how Sri Lanka manages its relationships with these two major powers, focusing on economic partnerships, political dependency, and domestic sovereignty concerns. Using case studies such as the Hambantota Port project and Indian investments in Northern Sri Lanka, this article evaluates whether Sri Lanka successfully balances these relationships or risks falling into dependency. The findings reveal a complex interplay between strategic interests, economic realities, and domestic political pressures, highlighting the challenges small states face in maintaining autonomy amid competing external influences. This study contributes to the existing literature by offering an updated analysis of Sri Lanka’s evolving foreign policy in the post-2019 geopolitical landscape. Furthermore, it provides practical implications for policymakers by outlining strategies for small states to navigate economic and political dependencies while safeguarding national interests. By situating Sri Lanka’s case within broader theoretical discussions on small-state diplomacy and economic statecraft, this research offers novel insights into the agency of smaller nations in shaping their foreign policy trajectories.