Abstract:
Sri Lanka’s free education policy has produced high literacy and enrollment, yet dropout during
the transition from the G.C.E. Ordinary Level (O/L) to Advanced Level (A/L) remains a
persistent challenge. Each year, nearly 20,000 students exit the system without progressing
to A/L, with dropouts concentrated in northern, plantation, and rural districts. While earlier
studies link dropout to poverty and resource gaps, the spatial dimension of these disparities has
rarely been examined systematically. This study aimed to investigate district-level disparities
in O/L to A/L dropout between 2012 and 2024 and to assess the influence of educational and
socio-economic resources. Guided by spatial inequality and educational stratification theories,
dropout rates for 25 districts were mapped using ArcGIS Pro, with hotspot analysis identifying
clusters. Explanatory variables, availability of 1AB schools, proportion of graduate-trained
teachers, and relative wealth, were tested using multiple regression in Jamovi. Results showed
dropout hotspots in Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, and Puttalam, while coldspots were
observed in southern districts such as Matara and Galle. Nationally, relative wealth was the
strongest negative predictor (p < 0.001, R² = 0.60), whereas teacher and school availability
were weaker or inconsistent. In high-dropout districts, teacher availability correlated positively
with dropout, suggesting reactive allocation, while no variable explained high-transition districts,
indicating the role of cultural factors. The study concludes that dropout disparities are
driven more by socio-economic inequality than infrastructure. Findings underscore the need for
targeted interventions in disadvantaged districts and demonstrate the utility of combining GIS
and regression for educational policy research.
