Abstract:
Temperature and rainfall fluctuations, along with soil degradation, significantly impact the distribution,
productivity, and economic viability of rubber plantations and farmers. This study
examines the combined influence of topsoil characteristics and climate on the suitability of rubber
plantations in the Badalkumbura Divisional Secretariat Division. Land Surface Temperature
(LST) analysis was conducted in 2014 and 2024 to assess temperature trends, while rainfall and
temperature variations from 2011–2024 to assess temperature trends, while rainfall and temperature
variations from 2011-2024 were analysed using data from the Department of Meteorology
and represented graphically. Soil quality was determined through laboratory analysis
of samples collected from 25 Grama Niladhari Divisions, focusing on parameters such as pH,
Electrical Conductivity (EC), Moisture Content (MC), and texture. Inverse Distance Weighted
(IDW) interpolation was used to generate soil suitability maps. Multiple regression analysis
was applied to assess the relationship between climatic and soil variables and rubber plantation
patterns. The LST analysis identified a notable increase in land surface temperature from
2014 to 2024. From 2011 – 2024, minimum temperatures consistently met the requirements
for rubber, yet maximum temperatures occasionally exceeded 34°C, especially during the Yala
seasons, potentially limiting productivity. Rainfall conditions during some Maha seasons were
favourable and corresponded with periods of increasing market prices, encouraging plantation
expansion. On the basis of pH, EC, MC, and texture, the areas of Hingurukaduwa, Dewathura,
Ankada, Ethpattiya, Ranugalla, and Miyanakandura were identified as highly favourable for
rubber. These optimal places fall within Badalkumbura V, particularly in "Ihala Kandukaraya".
In correlation, temperature, rainfall, and soil quality were found to moderately influence rubber
plantation trends in Badalkumbura. Finally, this study provides valuable insights for identifying
suitable plantation zones and highlights the importance of integrated climate-soil management
and policy support for sustainable rubber cultivation in Badalkumbura.
