Abstract:
Fertility decline and women’s socioeconomic empowerment are thus important areas
of demographic and policy concern in South Asia, where rapid population growth
continues to exert pressure on labor markets, welfare systems, and economic
development. Therefore, it is important to understand the effect of female education,
labor force participation, and economic growth on fertility in order to formulate
effective population and development policies. This study analyzes the association
between female secondary education, female labor force participation, economic
growth, and fertility in eight South Asian countries from 2000 to 2025 using an
autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Panel data from the World
Development Indicators have been used as a balanced panel to estimate both short
run and long-run dynamics using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach. Panel
unit root tests reveal that all the variables are stationary at the level. The findings
indicate that female education, female labor force participation, and GDP per capita
do not have a significant long-run effect on fertility. But in the short run, an increase
in female labor force participation has a positive effect on fertility. The error
correction term is negative and statistically significant, indicating a stable long-run
equilibrium and a rapid adjustment process towards equilibrium following short-run
shocks. Diagnostic tests indicate that the model is adequate and reliable. The study
discovers that short-run demographic and structural factors have a greater impact
than long-run socioeconomic variables on fertility behavior in South Asia. These
findings provide policy insights for education, employment, and population planning
strategies.
