FEMALE EDUCATION, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND FERTILITY: A PANEL ANALYSIS IN SOUTH ASIA

Abstract

Fertility decline and women’s socioeconomic empowerment are thus important areas of demographic and policy concern in South Asia, where rapid population growth continues to exert pressure on labor markets, welfare systems, and economic development. Therefore, it is important to understand the effect of female education, labor force participation, and economic growth on fertility in order to formulate effective population and development policies. This study analyzes the association between female secondary education, female labor force participation, economic growth, and fertility in eight South Asian countries from 2000 to 2025 using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Panel data from the World Development Indicators have been used as a balanced panel to estimate both short run and long-run dynamics using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach. Panel unit root tests reveal that all the variables are stationary at the level. The findings indicate that female education, female labor force participation, and GDP per capita do not have a significant long-run effect on fertility. But in the short run, an increase in female labor force participation has a positive effect on fertility. The error correction term is negative and statistically significant, indicating a stable long-run equilibrium and a rapid adjustment process towards equilibrium following short-run shocks. Diagnostic tests indicate that the model is adequate and reliable. The study discovers that short-run demographic and structural factors have a greater impact than long-run socioeconomic variables on fertility behavior in South Asia. These findings provide policy insights for education, employment, and population planning strategies.